Ike’s rookie power

Ahead of the pair is Ron Swoboda’s 19 long balls in 1965 and the best hitter developed by the Mets until Wright came along, Darryl Strawberry, who hit 26 in 1983. At Davis’ current rate of one homer every 24.7 plate appearances and estimating 245 more PAs this season (based on his 115 in May and 110 in June), he could have about 10 more left in him, putting him at 24.

Whether he hits more or less depends on the adjustments he makes as pitchers become even more familiar with him and his endurance as he plays past Labor Day for the first time in his career. But the home run rate is right on his combined numbers from St. Lucie and Binghamton in 2009: his 20 homers in 488 PAs was one every 24.4 at-bats. (In his 42 PAs at Triple-A Buffalo to start 2010, he hit two, or one every 21 PAs.) I left out his 2008 pro debut in Brooklyn, when he went homerless in 239 PAs, because that was no doubt an aberration as he adjusted to professional ball after being drafted that June out of Arizona State. And if you want the high end of his ability, perhaps what he did at Double-A last summer is an indication: He hit 13 homers in 233 PAs, or one every 17.9 trips to the dish.

Here are the best home run totals (10+) by Mets rookies, courtesy Baseball-Reference: